2026 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

35·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.017
  • 50.4%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +9.08CPOE+2.17
  • 53.9%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 66.5%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 2.60Points / drive1.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00465Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 13:36621Punt0–7
BALQ1 10:28613Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:4133Punt0–7
BALQ1 5:421793Field goal0–10
CINQ2 9:42619Punt0–10
BALQ2 6:591487Field goal0–13
CINQ2 0:50416End of half0–13
CINQ3 15:00966Touchdown7–13
BALQ3 9:243-5Punt7–13
CINQ3 7:10647Touchdown14–13
BALQ3 4:291059Turnover on downs14–13
CINQ4 14:55876Touchdown21–13
BALQ4 11:14414Punt21–13
CINQ4 9:19579Touchdown28–13
BALQ4 7:2510Turnover28–13
CINQ4 7:16324Touchdown35–13
BALQ4 6:21414Turnover on downs35–13
CINQ4 4:3936Punt35–13
BALQ4 2:06419End of half35–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/3029240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown11393.50
Samaje Perine4164.01
Joe Burrow2126.00
Tahj Brooks362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins671481
Ja'Marr Chase57621
Erick All33260
Drew Sample22241
Chase Brown45190
Mitchell Tinsley1170
Mike Gesicki1161
Dohnte Meyers0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley23/3429811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17452.60
Rasheen Ali4194.80
Tyler Huntley3124.00
Justice Hill372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers8111371
Josh Cuevas23350
Rashod Bateman24330
Justice Hill34260
Ja'Kobi Lane35250
Mark Andrews34230
LaJohntay Wester11150
Derrick Henry1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.53