Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+10.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapRavens
- +0.001EPA / play+0.209
- 47.6%Success rate46.9%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.316
- +0.050EPA / rush+0.101
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- +6.35CPOE+4.80
- 57.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 2.11Points / drive3.13
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+10.83