Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play+0.107
- 49.4%Success rate48.0%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.193
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.081
- 12.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.67CPOE+6.81
- 47.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.80Points / drive2.50
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 26/42 | 348 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 92 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 30/39 | 392 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 12 | 193 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins | 9 | 14 | 83 | 2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Erick All | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60