2024 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

41·38

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.199EPA / play+0.107
  • 49.4%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.193
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.081
  • 12.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +4.67CPOE+6.81
  • 47.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 2.80Points / drive2.50
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 8:5434Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:39634Punt7–0
CINQ1 3:291086Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 13:4435Punt7–7
CINQ2 12:053-7Punt7–7
BALQ2 11:08751Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 8:0932Punt14–9
BALQ2 5:521-2Safety14–9
CINQ2 5:47517Punt14–9
BALQ2 3:23711Punt14–9
CINQ2 0:34579Touchdown14–17
BALQ2 0:0900End of half14–17
CINQ3 15:001274Touchdown14–24
BALQ3 8:51474Touchdown21–24
CINQ3 6:381270Touchdown21–31
BALQ4 14:1911102Touchdown28–31
CINQ4 9:05170Touchdown28–38
BALQ4 8:541160Touchdown35–38
CINQ4 5:24642Turnover35–38
BALQ4 3:01734Field goal38–38
CINQ4 1:3532Punt38–38
BALOT731Turnover38–38
CINOT33Missed field goal38–38
BALOT151Field goal41–38

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson26/4234840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15926.11
Lamar Jackson12554.60
Justice Hill5173.40
Zay Flowers199.00
Charlie Kolar122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers7121110
Charlie Kolar34641
Rashod Bateman48581
Mark Andrews45550
Tylan Wallace22310
Isaiah Likely33132
Justice Hill1280
Nelson Agholor1440
Derrick Henry1140

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow30/3939251

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown12463.80
Zack Moss9242.70
Joe Burrow210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase10121932
Tee Higgins914832
Andrei Iosivas12390
Mike Gesicki22310
Zack Moss34280
Erick All22100
Chase Brown3381

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.60