2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

20·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.001EPA / play+0.069
  • 44.4%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.103EPA / rush+0.009
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.09CPOE+2.73
  • 38.3%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.25
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:02629Field goal3–7
BALQ1 7:323-13Punt3–7
CINQ1 5:453-7Punt3–7
BALQ1 4:1036Punt3–7
CINQ1 2:34623Missed field goal3–7
BALQ2 14:5553Punt3–7
CINQ2 13:111292Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 5:49785Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 2:20522Punt10–14
BALQ2 1:301049Touchdown10–21
CINQ2 0:2312End of half10–21
CINQ3 15:001038Field goal13–21
BALQ3 9:56968Field goal13–24
CINQ3 4:024-2Punt13–24
BALQ3 2:11427Field goal13–27
CINQ3 0:2632Punt13–27
BALQ4 14:06728Punt13–27
CINQ4 10:3333Punt13–27
BALQ4 8:25673Touchdown13–34
CINQ4 4:49870Touchdown20–34
BALQ4 1:0824End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow11/1710110
Jake Browning8/146810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon16694.30
Jake Browning44010.00
Trayveon Williams22010.00
Joe Burrow177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tanner Hudson44490
Trenton Irwin35360
Joe Mixon55311
Tyler Boyd36220
Drew Sample22190
Ja'Marr Chase27121
Irv Smith0100
Shedrick Jackson0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/2626420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards12625.22
Lamar Jackson9546.00
Keaton Mitchell8334.10
Zay Flowers177.00
Justice Hill111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.471160
Zay Flowers34430
Nelson Agholor11371
Mark Andrews22230
Charlie Kolar11130
Rashod Bateman12101
Gus Edwards2280
Keaton Mitchell1180
Justice Hill1160
Isaiah Likely0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.09