Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.069
- 44.4%Success rate47.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.009
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.09CPOE+2.73
- 38.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.91Points / drive2.25
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 11/17 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 8/14 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/26 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 7 | 116 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09