Closing spread
GB -4
Total
39
Model margin
+3.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.016
- 38.8%Success rate40.8%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.154
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- 35.5%Third-down rate36.6%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.19Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 20/39 | 225 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedrick Irvin | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Greg Hill | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 14 | 112 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/40 | 309 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 23 | 47 | 2.0 | 1 |
| De'Mond Parker | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 6 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45