1999 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

17·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Damon Huard

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.116
  • 37.4%Success rate37.3%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.186
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.17
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:3135Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:35618Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:1310Turnover0–0
NEQ1 8:0727Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 7:2535Punt7–0
NEQ1 5:4735Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 4:3238Field goal7–3
NEQ1 3:00669Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 14:081276Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 8:2433Punt10–10
MIAQ2 7:08939Turnover10–10
NEQ2 2:4232Punt10–10
MIAQ2 1:0257Punt10–10
NEQ2 0:1400End of half10–10
MIAQ3 15:001165Touchdown10–17
NEQ3 8:553-5Punt10–17
MIAQ3 6:3632Punt10–17
NEQ3 5:3028Turnover10–17
MIAQ3 4:44310Touchdown10–24
NEQ3 3:19268Touchdown17–24
MIAQ3 2:503-14Punt17–24
NEQ3 1:203-1Turnover17–24
MIAQ3 0:143-1Punt17–24
NEQ4 14:381336Punt17–24
MIAQ4 8:45611Punt17–24
NEQ4 5:3720Turnover17–24
MIAQ4 5:24616Field goal17–27
NEQ4 3:11839Turnover17–27
MIAQ4 1:0500End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe15/3420115

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk56112.20
Terry Allen13423.21
Drew Bledsoe1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson22861
Terry Glenn37390
Ben Coates26270
Troy Brown34260
Terry Allen1180
Vincent Brisby1470
Kevin Faulk2360
Tony Carter1120
Tony Simmons0100
Lamont Warren0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard18/3012920
Scott Zolak0/4000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Johnson311063.41
Damon Huard3134.30
Scott Zolak2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin410440
Oronde Gadsden46362
Troy Drayton47250
Stanley Pritchett22130
J.J. Johnson1160
O.J. McDuffie1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.11