Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.116
- 37.4%Success rate37.3%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.186
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.2%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.19Points / drive1.17
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/34 | 201 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 61 | 12.2 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 86 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 18/30 | 129 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Zolak | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 31 | 106 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Damon Huard | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Scott Zolak | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 4 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 6 | 36 | 2 |
| Troy Drayton | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.11