Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:40 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 6:36 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 14:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 13:01 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:58 | 3 | -4 | Safety | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q2 9:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–12 |
| LV | Q2 8:23 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–12 |
| DEN | Q2 7:29 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–15 |
| LV | Q2 6:37 | 5 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–15 |
| DEN | Q2 4:44 | 9 | 64 | Turnover | 7–15 |
| LV | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 7–15 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–15 |
| LV | Q3 14:49 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 15–15 |
| DEN | Q3 14:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 15–15 |
| LV | Q3 12:51 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 15–15 |
| DEN | Q3 9:07 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 15–15 |
| LV | Q3 6:47 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 18–15 |
| DEN | Q3 1:26 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 18–15 |
| LV | Q4 13:11 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 18–15 |
| DEN | Q4 11:41 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 18–15 |
| LV | Q4 10:04 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 18–15 |
| DEN | Q4 7:08 | 7 | 11 | Field goal | 18–18 |
| LV | Q4 4:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 18–18 |
| DEN | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 18–18 |
| LV | Q4 1:42 | 4 | 4 | Field goal | 21–18 |
| DEN | Q4 1:21 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 21–21 |
| LV | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–21 |
| DEN | OT | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | OT | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 21–27 |
| DEN | OT | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Miller | 12/27 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 6/14 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chris Miller | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.