Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Miller | 12/27 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 6/14 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chris Miller | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.