Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.007
- 41.6%Success rate40.1%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.083
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.27Points / drive1.52
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 18/30 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Blackwell | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/26 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Joey Kent | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26