2013 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

16·9

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

42

Model margin

+4.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.001
  • 42.3%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.173
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.14CPOE+3.30
  • 41.0%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.82
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
TENQ1 15:0000Safety0–2
PITQ1 14:571253Turnover0–2
TENQ1 8:161050Punt0–2
PITQ1 3:2856Punt0–2
TENQ1 0:133-5Punt0–2
PITQ2 14:11835Punt0–2
TENQ2 9:1645Punt0–2
PITQ2 7:3910Turnover0–2
TENQ2 7:321344Touchdown7–2
PITQ2 0:441-5End of half7–2
PITQ3 15:0038Punt7–2
TENQ3 13:4534Punt7–2
PITQ3 12:243-1Punt7–2
TENQ3 10:211047Field goal10–2
PITQ3 4:2937Punt10–2
TENQ3 3:23827Punt10–2
PITQ4 14:35533Punt10–2
TENQ4 12:201153Field goal13–2
PITQ4 6:013-2Punt13–2
TENQ4 4:5338Field goal16–2
PITQ4 3:53960Touchdown16–9
TENQ4 1:2300End of half16–9

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker11/2012500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson25702.80
Jackie Battle8212.61
Shonn Greene4184.50
Jake Locker530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington47460
Delanie Walker34400
Kenny Britt12150
Damian Williams12130
Kendall Wright24110
Craig Stevens0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3319111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling6193.20
Isaac Redman781.10
Antonio Brown144.00
Ben Roethlisberger100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown57710
Emmanuel Sanders712570
Jerricho Cotchery47341
LaRod Stephens-Howling23110
David Johnson11110
Isaac Redman2370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.17