Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
42
Model margin
+4.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.001
- 42.3%Success rate42.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.173
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.14CPOE+3.30
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.6%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 11/20 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 25 | 70 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/33 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17