2014 · Week 11

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.122
  • 48.4%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.190
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.59CPOE-2.82
  • 45.6%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.18
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
PITQ1 15:00637Field goal3–0
TENQ1 10:4510Opp touchdown10–0
TENQ1 10:37552Touchdown10–7
PITQ1 8:081385Field goal13–7
TENQ1 1:03858Field goal13–10
PITQ2 11:123-10Punt13–10
TENQ2 9:2137Punt13–10
PITQ2 7:411475Turnover13–16
TENQ2 0:44180Touchdown13–17
PITQ2 0:322-1End of half13–17
TENQ3 15:0038Punt13–17
PITQ3 13:16710Punt13–17
TENQ3 8:581287Touchdown13–24
PITQ3 3:42872Touchdown20–24
TENQ4 14:5134Punt20–24
PITQ4 13:03865Touchdown27–24
TENQ4 9:01416Punt27–24
PITQ4 6:581055End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3220711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell332046.21
Ben Roethlisberger320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown911911
Heath Miller55710
Le'Veon Bell24180
Lance Moore11150
Martavis Bryant25110
Markus Wheaton1560
Dri Archer11-50

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger15/2426321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey11383.51
Shonn Greene362.00
Dexter McCluster155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington12801
Kendall Wright48700
Justin Hunter24480
Chase Coffman34321
Dexter McCluster12170
Bishop Sankey1170
Derek Hagan1150
Jackie Battle2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.55