Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.122
- 48.4%Success rate39.5%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.59CPOE-2.82
- 45.6%Third-down rate29.7%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.26Points / drive1.18
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/32 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 33 | 204 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 15/24 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 1 | 2 | 80 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.55