Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.093
- 42.0%Success rate38.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.59CPOE-2.87
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.66Points / drive1.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/40 | 363 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baron Batch | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 4 | 94 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 10 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/44 | 290 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04