2012 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.093
  • 42.0%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.59CPOE-2.87
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.29
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
TENQ1 15:00944Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:53644Field goal3–3
TENQ1 7:2437Punt9–3
PITQ1 5:37182Touchdown10–3
TENQ1 5:25757Field goal10–6
PITQ1 1:1133Punt10–6
TENQ2 15:0021Touchdown10–13
PITQ2 14:1439Punt10–13
TENQ2 12:5049Punt10–13
PITQ2 11:40829Punt10–13
TENQ2 7:063-7Punt10–13
PITQ2 5:3633Punt10–13
TENQ2 4:34622Punt10–13
PITQ2 1:49255Turnover10–13
TENQ2 1:31959Field goal10–16
PITQ3 15:001050Field goal13–16
TENQ3 9:03632Punt13–16
PITQ3 5:161670Touchdown20–16
TENQ4 13:34627Turnover20–16
PITQ4 9:56414Field goal23–16
TENQ4 8:181275Touchdown23–23
PITQ4 4:19853Missed field goal23–23
TENQ4 0:49433Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4036311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Baron Batch10222.21
Ben Roethlisberger11414.00
Isaac Redman5142.80
Rashard Mendenhall661.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac Redman451050
Mike Wallace24941
Heath Miller69670
Emmanuel Sanders46430
Antonio Brown410200
Chris Rainey11120
Rashard Mendenhall11110
David Paulson1180
Baron Batch1130
Will Johnson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck25/4429011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson19914.80
Matt Hasselbeck122.00
Jamie Harper210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright68710
Kenny Britt411621
Nate Washington310570
Jared Cook44540
Chris Johnson44230
Damian Williams23140
Taylor Thompson1150
Craig Stevens1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.04