2011 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

17·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

40

Model margin

+5.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.054
  • 39.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.91CPOE+3.03
  • 35.9%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
TENQ1 15:001437Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:171050Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 3:00510Punt3–7
PITQ1 0:44870Touchdown3–14
TENQ2 11:1437Punt3–14
PITQ2 9:21685Touchdown3–21
TENQ2 6:11514Punt3–21
PITQ2 3:221256Turnover3–21
TENQ2 0:0819End of half3–21
PITQ3 15:0050Punt3–21
TENQ3 12:3339Punt3–21
PITQ3 10:25971Touchdown3–28
TENQ3 4:44977Touchdown10–28
PITQ3 2:0200Turnover10–28
TENQ3 2:0010Turnover10–28
PITQ3 1:541053Field goal10–31
TENQ4 10:451340Turnover on downs10–31
PITQ4 7:2832Punt10–31
TENQ4 6:271131Touchdown17–31
PITQ4 3:32344Touchdown17–38
TENQ4 2:39845End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck29/4926211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson14513.61
Javon Ringer3124.00
Matt Hasselbeck133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington58690
Damian Williams611661
Jared Cook49590
Lavelle Hawkins48330
Javon Ringer66160
Chris Johnson33140
Marc Mariani1250
Daniel Graham0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3422851

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer111079.70
Isaac Redman15493.30
Antonio Brown11010.00
Mike Wallace188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace67821
Hines Ward78542
Heath Miller34461
Antonio Brown24230
Isaac Redman33120
Jonathan Dwyer1160
David Johnson2251
Jerricho Cotchery0100
Emmanuel Sanders0300
Weslye Saunders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26