Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
40
Model margin
+5.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.054
- 39.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.91CPOE+3.03
- 35.9%Third-down rate45.1%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.51Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 29/49 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Javon Ringer | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 6 | 11 | 66 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 6 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/34 | 228 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 7 | 8 | 54 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26