Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.076
- 42.6%Success rate46.0%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.43CPOE+3.69
- 36.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.73Points / drive2.22
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/33 | 306 | 1 | 4 |
| Eric Decker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 6 | 113 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 31/46 | 307 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 13 | 144 | 3 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 5 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.98