2017 · Week 11

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

17·40

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Nothing filed.

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.6%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.43CPOE+3.69
  • 36.0%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.22
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:2532Turnover0–7
PITQ1 11:27516Field goal0–10
TENQ1 9:411173Touchdown7–10
PITQ1 3:053-1Punt7–10
TENQ1 1:20837Missed field goal7–10
PITQ2 11:233-7Punt7–10
TENQ2 10:0032Punt7–10
PITQ2 8:54512Punt7–10
TENQ2 6:59828Turnover7–10
PITQ2 3:11723Field goal7–13
TENQ2 1:3730Punt7–13
PITQ2 1:11620Field goal7–16
TENQ2 0:1800End of half7–16
TENQ3 15:00175Touchdown14–16
PITQ3 14:491160Touchdown14–23
TENQ3 10:01749Field goal17–23
PITQ3 5:341275Touchdown17–30
TENQ4 14:5644Punt17–30
PITQ4 13:39438Touchdown17–37
TENQ4 12:1226Turnover17–37
PITQ4 11:39944Field goal17–40
TENQ4 5:211244Turnover17–40
PITQ4 2:2215Turnover on downs17–40
TENQ4 0:4400End of half17–40

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota22/3330614
Eric Decker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry7324.60
DeMarco Murray8101.30
Marcus Mariota551.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews561131
Delanie Walker69920
Eric Decker33370
DeMarco Murray56370
Corey Davis37270
Jonnu Smith0100
Taywan Taylor0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger31/4630740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell12463.80
James Conner5122.40
Ben Roethlisberger11010.00
Landry Jones3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10131443
Le'Veon Bell1012650
JuJu Smith-Schuster48470
Martavis Bryant24300
Jesse James58211

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.98