Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
44
Model margin
+0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.051
- 44.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.33CPOE-2.66
- 43.8%Third-down rate39.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.15Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/32 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/25 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| James Washington | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.32