2021 · Week 15

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

13·19

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

44

Model margin

+0.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.051
  • 44.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.33CPOE-2.66
  • 43.8%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:2332Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:1634Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:10625Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 7:413-4Punt7–0
TENQ1 6:071040Field goal10–0
PITQ1 1:13422Punt10–0
TENQ2 14:18313Turnover10–0
PITQ2 12:46423Field goal10–3
TENQ2 10:351979Field goal13–3
PITQ2 0:18340Missed field goal13–3
TENQ3 15:00524Punt13–3
PITQ3 11:264-4Punt13–3
TENQ3 10:1050Punt13–3
PITQ3 7:071039Touchdown13–10
TENQ3 3:08616Turnover13–10
PITQ3 0:50722Field goal13–13
TENQ4 13:24843Turnover13–13
PITQ4 9:1634Field goal13–16
TENQ4 7:20211Turnover13–16
PITQ4 6:3635Field goal13–19
TENQ4 4:291365Turnover on downs13–19
PITQ4 0:2700End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3215301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman221084.90
Dontrell Hilliard9495.40
Jeremy McNichols6264.30
Ryan Tannehill5183.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine47320
Chester Rogers44300
D'Onta Foreman23270
Jeremy McNichols33250
Anthony Firkser22190
Dontrell Hilliard46100
Geoff Swaim1250
Cody Hollister1250
MyCole Pruitt1110
Julio Jones0100
Racey McMath11-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/2514800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris12181.50
Diontae Johnson11010.00
Chase Claypool177.00
Ben Roethlisberger300.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson55380
Pat Freiermuth44370
James Washington35360
Zach Gentry11170
Chase Claypool02120
Najee Harris2580
Ray-Ray McCloud1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.32