2023 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

16·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+2.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.064
  • 40.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.48CPOE-0.21
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.54
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:001183Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:111532Field goal3–7
PITQ1 2:4832Punt3–7
TENQ1 1:53636Punt3–7
PITQ2 13:5932Punt3–7
TENQ2 13:011173Touchdown10–7
PITQ2 6:351055Field goal10–10
TENQ2 1:16757Field goal13–10
TENQ3 15:0032Punt13–10
PITQ3 13:581570Field goal13–13
TENQ3 5:41940Field goal16–13
PITQ3 0:19619Punt16–13
TENQ4 12:25633Punt16–13
PITQ4 9:131294Touchdown16–20
TENQ4 4:0246Turnover on downs16–20
PITQ4 2:0632Punt16–20
TENQ4 1:441261Turnover16–20
PITQ4 0:0600End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis22/3926201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17754.41
Tyjae Spears5183.60
DeAndre Hopkins155.00
Treylon Burks155.00
Will Levis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Philips45680
DeAndre Hopkins411600
Chris Moore12290
Chig Okonkwo34280
Derrick Henry34270
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11230
Treylon Burks23230
Tyjae Spears4640
Josh Whyle0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett19/3016010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren11888.00
Najee Harris16694.31
Calvin Austin III2105.00
Kenny Pickett1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson79901
Jaylen Warren33250
Allen Robinson12100
Najee Harris2470
Darnell Washington1170
Miles Boykin1160
Calvin Austin III0100
George Pickens25-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93