Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.064
- 40.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.48CPOE-0.21
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.3%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.54
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 22/39 | 262 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Philips | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 19/30 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 88 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93