Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
51
Model margin
+1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.189
- 44.0%Success rate50.8%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.070
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.90CPOE+2.16
- 42.1%Third-down rate47.4%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.12Points / drive2.85
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32/49 | 268 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 14 | 85 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 15 | 80 | 2 |
| Eric Ebron | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/30 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 153 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 6 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82