2020 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

51

Model margin

+1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Titans

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.189
  • 44.0%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.134EPA / rush+0.070
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.90CPOE+2.16
  • 42.1%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.85
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT
2010 · W2PIT @ TEN19–11PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
PITQ1 15:0018100Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 5:4241Punt7–0
PITQ1 4:211361Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 12:161270Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 5:26750Field goal17–7
TENQ2 2:5035Punt17–7
PITQ2 1:35317Touchdown24–7
TENQ2 0:5247Turnover on downs24–7
PITQ2 0:1410Turnover24–7
TENQ3 15:003-6Punt24–7
PITQ3 13:19718Field goal27–7
TENQ3 10:26275Touchdown27–14
PITQ3 9:3637Punt27–14
TENQ3 8:0236Punt27–14
PITQ3 5:49414Turnover27–14
TENQ3 3:443-3Field goal27–17
PITQ3 2:55514Punt27–17
TENQ3 0:381370Touchdown27–24
PITQ4 10:131782Turnover27–24
TENQ4 2:351167Missed field goal27–24
PITQ4 0:1400End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger32/4926823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner20824.10
Anthony McFarland166.00
Jaylen Samuels155.00
Benny Snell221.01
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster914850
Diontae Johnson915802
Eric Ebron68500
James Conner35290
Vance McDonald22140
Ray-Ray McCloud22120
James Washington0100
Anthony McFarland0100
Chase Claypool11-20

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/3022020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry20753.81
Ryan Tannehill252.50
Jeremy McNichols122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown681531
Corey Davis610351
Adam Humphries13190
Jonnu Smith1490
Anthony Firkser2270
Geoff Swaim0100
Derrick Henry22-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82