Closing spread
KC -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.027
- 39.0%Success rate38.7%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- 33.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.40Points / drive1.01
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 14/33 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 5 | 9 | 114 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 30/49 | 320 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 8 | 13 | 101 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.53