1999 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

31·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapChiefs
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.027
  • 39.0%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.01
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.134

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–KC
SEAQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:471281Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 6:0730Turnover0–3
KCQ1 4:57719Punt0–3
SEAQ1 1:041596Touchdown7–3
KCQ2 10:191171Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 5:03975Touchdown14–10
KCQ2 1:46110Turnover14–10
SEAQ2 1:3014Turnover14–10
KCQ2 1:231143Field goal14–13
SEAQ2 0:0200End of half14–13
KCQ3 15:00628Punt14–13
SEAQ3 12:251035Field goal17–13
KCQ3 9:1739Punt17–13
SEAQ3 7:53630Punt17–13
KCQ3 5:033-4Punt17–13
SEAQ3 4:01242Touchdown24–13
KCQ3 3:1338Punt24–13
SEAQ3 1:2538Punt24–13
KCQ4 14:53417Punt24–13
SEAQ4 12:4131Punt24–13
KCQ4 10:27859Touchdown24–19
SEAQ4 6:49512Punt24–19
KCQ4 5:0938Punt24–19
SEAQ4 4:11558Touchdown31–19
KCQ4 2:43422Turnover31–19
SEAQ4 1:473-3End of half31–19

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna14/3323521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters241074.52
Jon Kitna7142.00
Ahman Green11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins591141
Ricky Watters46671
Christian Fauria22200
Joey Galloway14180
Mike Pritchard14120
Derrick Mayes0300
Itula Mili0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac30/4932001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaan Shehee591.80
Mike Cloud133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Alexander8131010
Rashaan Shehee66730
Tony Gonzalez89620
Andre Rison46420
Joe Horn23100
Kevin Lockett1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.53