Closing spread
KC -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.009
- 40.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.93CPOE+3.07
- 37.5%Third-down rate41.1%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.49Points / drive1.66
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/30 | 198 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 17/25 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 39 | 155 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Michael Bennett | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.22