Closing spread
KC -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.009
- 40.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.93CPOE+3.07
- 37.5%Third-down rate41.1%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.49Points / drive1.66
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 12:05 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:07 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 6:06 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 5:11 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q1 0:25 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 12:39 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q2 8:31 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| KC | Q2 4:55 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q2 0:45 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 14–20 |
| KC | Q3 13:13 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| SEA | Q3 6:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| KC | Q3 6:12 | 8 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 21–27 |
| KC | Q3 1:27 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 21–27 |
| SEA | Q4 12:35 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–27 |
| KC | Q4 10:46 | 7 | 32 | Missed field goal | 21–27 |
| SEA | Q4 7:07 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| KC | Q4 6:30 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–35 |
| SEA | Q4 2:15 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 28–35 |
| SEA | Q4 1:58 | 7 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 28–35 |
| KC | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/30 | 198 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 17/25 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 39 | 155 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Michael Bennett | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.22