2010 · Week 12

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

42·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

45

Model margin

-1.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.117
  • 42.3%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.194
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.87CPOE-1.80
  • 37.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.36
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA
2001 · W11SEA @ KC7–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SEA
KCQ1 15:00772Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 11:3149Turnover on downs7–0
KCQ1 9:40752Missed field goal7–0
SEAQ1 5:0335Punt7–0
KCQ1 3:33625Opp touchdown7–7
KCQ1 0:311578Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 7:18622Punt14–7
KCQ2 3:50680Touchdown21–7
SEAQ2 1:12417Turnover21–7
KCQ2 0:422-5Turnover21–7
SEAQ2 0:28518Field goal21–10
SEAQ3 15:00213Touchdown21–17
KCQ3 14:03514Punt21–17
SEAQ3 12:17720Punt21–17
KCQ3 8:5838Punt21–17
SEAQ3 8:13728Punt21–17
KCQ3 6:001171Touchdown28–17
SEAQ4 14:543-5Turnover28–17
KCQ4 13:53322Touchdown35–17
SEAQ4 12:43312Turnover35–17
KCQ4 12:0437Punt35–23
SEAQ4 10:29187Touchdown35–24
KCQ4 10:161080Touchdown42–24
SEAQ4 3:3647Turnover on downs42–24
KCQ4 2:3912Punt42–24
SEAQ4 1:5125End of half42–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel22/3223340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles221737.91
Thomas Jones20683.40
Matt Cassel5285.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe13171703
Verran Tucker12240
Thomas Jones33140
Terrance Copper1260
Tony Moeaki1261
Jamaal Charles2330
Leonard Pope0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/3728222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch7202.90
Justin Forsett320.70
Matt Hasselbeck2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Obomanu561591
Brandon Stokley58510
Golden Tate24210
Chris Baker11131
Marshawn Lynch22130
Deon Butler2990
Justin Forsett1180
Leon Washington1150
John Carlson1230
Cameron Morrah0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.05