Closing spread
KC -1
Total
45
Model margin
-1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.117
- 42.3%Success rate38.3%
- +0.099EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.194
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.87CPOE-1.80
- 37.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.36
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/32 | 233 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 173 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 13 | 17 | 170 | 3 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/37 | 282 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Obomanu | 5 | 6 | 159 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.05