Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.026
- 44.0%Success rate42.6%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.093
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.081
- 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.40CPOE-1.58
- 43.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.06Points / drive1.99
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/32 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 24 | 124 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 11/16 | 108 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 20 | 159 | 8.0 | 2 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.98