2014 · Week 11

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 21°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapChiefs
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.026
  • 44.0%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.093
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.081
  • 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.40CPOE-1.58
  • 43.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.99
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA
2001 · W11SEA @ KC7–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–KC
SEAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:231581Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 4:221785Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 10:22480Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 8:091281Field goal10–14
KCQ2 1:3945Turnover10–14
SEAQ2 1:09838Field goal13–14
KCQ3 15:001162Field goal13–17
SEAQ3 7:39611Punt13–17
KCQ3 3:1610Turnover13–17
SEAQ3 3:05544Touchdown20–17
KCQ3 0:23561Touchdown20–24
SEAQ4 13:411175Turnover on downs20–24
KCQ4 7:0831Punt20–24
SEAQ4 6:15414Turnover on downs20–24
KCQ4 3:3139Punt20–24
SEAQ4 2:47716Turnover on downs20–24
KCQ4 1:1300End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3217820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch241245.20
Russell Wilson8718.90
Robert Turbin4112.80
Christine Michael1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse59540
Luke Willson33510
Doug Baldwin69451
Paul Richardson34240
Cooper Helfet1320
Marshawn Lynch1310
Tony Moeaki1111

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith11/1610800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles201598.02
De'Anthony Thomas3227.30
Knile Davis5102.01
Alex Smith2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce35370
Jamaal Charles22190
Dwayne Bowe24180
De'Anthony Thomas11100
Knile Davis1180
Phillip Supernaw1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.98