2018 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

31·38

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

54

Model margin

+1.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.236EPA / play+0.093
  • 50.0%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.208
  • +0.018EPA / rush-0.027
  • 12.1%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +4.64CPOE+7.30
  • 47.8%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 3.03Points / drive2.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA
2001 · W11SEA @ KC7–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SEA
KCQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:011183Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:55739Field goal3–7
SEAQ1 6:341031Missed field goal3–7
KCQ1 1:471079Touchdown10–7
SEAQ2 11:2139Punt10–7
KCQ2 9:4328Turnover10–7
SEAQ2 8:39718Touchdown10–14
KCQ2 5:2639Punt10–14
SEAQ2 3:02737Punt10–14
KCQ2 0:33340Turnover10–14
SEAQ2 0:1000End of half10–14
SEAQ3 15:001260Field goal10–17
KCQ3 9:27783Touchdown17–17
SEAQ3 5:18880Touchdown17–24
KCQ3 0:4530Punt17–24
SEAQ3 0:2237Punt17–24
KCQ4 14:13965Field goal20–24
SEAQ4 10:28768Touchdown20–31
KCQ4 7:31972Touchdown28–31
SEAQ4 4:36875Touchdown28–38
KCQ4 2:29416Field goal31–38
SEAQ4 1:2000End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/4027330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams131037.90
Patrick Mahomes33311.00
Tyreek Hill2178.50
Charcandrick West111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill49740
Travis Kelce59540
Chris Conley35540
Charcandrick West23371
Damien Williams77371
Demarcus Robinson23171
Demetrius Harris0100
Kelvin Benjamin0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2927130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson271164.32
Russell Wilson8577.10
Mike Davis7314.40
J.D. McKissic166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin7121261
Tyler Lockett45990
Ed Dickson33191
Nick Vannett22111
Jaron Brown1190
David Moore1370
Mike Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.51