Closing spread
KC -1
Total
54
Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play+0.093
- 50.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.208
- +0.018EPA / rush-0.027
- 12.1%Explosive rate11.2%
- +4.64CPOE+7.30
- 47.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 3.03Points / drive2.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/40 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 7 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/29 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 27 | 116 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 12 | 126 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 99 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.51