Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.179
- 44.8%Success rate50.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.019
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +5.46CPOE+3.02
- 37.4%Third-down rate49.4%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.05Points / drive2.71
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/40 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 26 | 107 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/28 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.44