2022 · Week 16

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

10·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 12°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapChiefs
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.179
  • 44.8%Success rate50.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.019
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +5.46CPOE+3.02
  • 37.4%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.71
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA
2001 · W11SEA @ KC7–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–KC
KCQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:15414Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:53958Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 6:4147Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 4:11512Punt0–7
SEAQ1 2:3432Punt0–7
KCQ1 1:2837Punt0–7
SEAQ2 15:003-5Punt0–7
KCQ2 12:17753Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 8:56614Punt0–14
KCQ2 5:28543Field goal0–17
SEAQ2 2:401366Field goal3–17
SEAQ3 15:0034Punt3–17
KCQ3 14:0537Punt3–17
SEAQ3 13:001048Turnover on downs3–17
KCQ3 7:24512Punt3–17
SEAQ3 4:31757Turnover on downs3–17
KCQ4 14:5349Punt3–17
SEAQ4 13:23933Turnover3–17
KCQ4 7:42580Touchdown3–24
SEAQ4 4:421075Touchdown10–24
KCQ4 2:2548Turnover on downs10–24
SEAQ4 1:06418End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith25/4021511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III261074.10
Geno Smith3165.30
DeeJay Dallas2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf79810
Colby Parkinson34450
DeeJay Dallas66320
Laquon Treadwell37260
Will Dissly11190
Noah Fant23121
Penny Hart1220
Marquise Goodwin0400
Kenneth Walker III22-20

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2822420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco14584.10
Patrick Mahomes284.01
Jerick McKinnon571.40
Ronald Jones144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce681130
Isiah Pacheco12320
Jerick McKinnon33311
JuJu Smith-Schuster34270
Noah Gray1180
Kadarius Toney1281
Skyy Moore1150
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0200
Justin Watson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.44