Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play+0.035
- 47.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.083EPA / rush-0.070
- 11.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 2.29Points / drive1.60
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 26/34 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 197 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 7 | 110 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/36 | 362 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 145 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 8 | 11 | 168 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 6 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59