2026 · Week 7

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

3·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.113EPA / play-0.042
  • 47.1%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.103
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.225
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.39CPOE+1.94
  • 39.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.93
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA
2001 · W11SEA @ KC7–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SEA
KCQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:57928Punt0–0
KCQ1 7:12948Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:481496Field goal0–3
KCQ2 8:22612Turnover0–3
SEAQ2 6:001066Touchdown0–10
KCQ2 1:4435Punt0–10
SEAQ2 1:16661Turnover0–10
KCQ2 0:0714Missed field goal0–10
SEAQ3 15:001262Field goal0–13
KCQ3 8:091344Field goal3–13
SEAQ3 1:42310Punt3–13
KCQ4 14:171170Missed field goal3–13
SEAQ4 8:33965Touchdown3–20
KCQ4 3:4743Turnover on downs3–20
SEAQ4 3:13622End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/3316501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III14362.60
Patrick Mahomes2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce48440
Noah Gray33440
Kenneth Walker III45210
Cyrus Allen12180
Emmett Johnson23170
Xavier Worthy36110
Justin Watson1170
Andrew Armstrong1230
Jalen Royals0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold20/2825711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson241004.21
Sam Darnold2178.50
Jaxon Smith-Njigba2136.50
George Holani5112.20
Velus Jones Jr.581.60
AJ Barner341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba9121501
AJ Barner45420
Cooper Kupp22200
Eric Saubert11170
Emanuel Wilson11150
George Holani12120
Rashid Shaheed2310
Tory Horton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.57