Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapSeahawks
- +0.118EPA / play+0.029
- 40.9%Success rate38.8%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.196
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -11.92CPOE+2.36
- 56.3%Third-down rate18.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.57Points / drive1.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-7.16