Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.018
- 43.9%Success rate38.9%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.031
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.54Points / drive1.20
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:00 | 11 | 37 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:17 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:56 | 9 | 56 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:31 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 7:41 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 4:41 | 5 | 45 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 2:29 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 20 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q3 12:55 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q3 12:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q3 10:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q3 9:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:24 | 6 | 63 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 5:47 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 4:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 3:06 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 0:39 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 11:52 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| KC | Q4 10:26 | 5 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 8:14 | 9 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| KC | Q4 2:56 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| SEA | Q4 0:51 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 18–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/33 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 117 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 22/38 | 248 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 127 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jay Graham | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 6 | 10 | 71 | 2 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| James Williams | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30