1999 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Dave Brown

34·24

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 48°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYG -4.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.084
  • 35.9%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.207
  • 5.9%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 0.87Points / drive1.14
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:573-9Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:08412Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:461126Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 5:54515Punt3–0
ARIQ1 3:4330Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 2:583-2Punt3–0
ARIQ1 1:57943Punt3–0
NYGQ2 11:561188Touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 6:24969Field goal6–7
NYGQ2 1:51866Field goal6–10
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half6–10
ARIQ3 15:0037Punt6–10
NYGQ3 13:2610Turnover6–10
ARIQ3 13:16516Touchdown13–10
NYGQ3 11:5030Turnover13–10
ARIQ3 10:493-3Punt13–10
NYGQ3 9:5030Punt13–10
ARIQ3 8:54715Turnover on downs13–10
NYGQ3 5:3931Punt13–10
ARIQ3 4:37962Touchdown20–10
NYGQ4 14:551481Touchdown20–17
ARIQ4 8:51960Touchdown27–17
NYGQ4 4:162-12Turnover27–17
ARIQ4 3:3736Missed field goal27–17
NYGQ4 2:35316Opp touchdown34–17
ARIQ4 1:5700Opp touchdown34–17
NYGQ4 1:57570Touchdown34–24
ARIQ4 0:421-1End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown11/1712600
Jake Plummer12/1812520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mario Bates16372.31
Adrian Murrell15281.90
Dave Brown144.00
Jake Plummer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Moore791021
Frank Sanders68730
Adrian Murrell510500
David Boston1190
Johnny McWilliams1491
Mac Cody1150
Terry Hardy1120

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/4529813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber10373.70
Sean Bennett5163.21
Kerry Collins111.01
LeShon Johnson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer69870
Ike Hilliard412720
Tiki Barber37641
Pete Mitchell57470
David Patten25210
Sean Bennett1160
Greg Comella1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.89