Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.084
- 35.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.148EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.207
- 5.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- 33.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 0.87Points / drive1.14
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 11/17 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 12/18 | 125 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bates | 16 | 37 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Adrian Murrell | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Moore | 7 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/45 | 298 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| LeShon Johnson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 6 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Pete Mitchell | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89