Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.026
- 38.5%Success rate42.4%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 35.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.98
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 24/42 | 315 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 5 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 9 | 18 | 98 | 1 |
| Chris Calloway | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 18/27 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 31 | 94 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 5 | 133 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60