1999 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

17·21

Lions

Detroit

QB Gus Frerotte

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -6

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.102EPA / play-0.057
  • 38.6%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.024
  • -0.228EPA / rush-0.222
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 44.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.19
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.055

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:27464Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:1339Punt0–7
DETQ1 9:15833Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:3139Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:1745Punt0–7
CHIQ1 1:1937Punt0–7
DETQ2 14:54639Missed field goal0–7
CHIQ2 12:19518Punt0–7
DETQ2 10:18512Punt0–7
CHIQ2 7:543-4Punt0–7
DETQ2 6:22768Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 2:4510Turnover0–14
DETQ2 2:2631Touchdown0–21
CHIQ2 1:45553Touchdown7–21
DETQ2 0:3000End of half7–21
DETQ3 15:00420Punt7–21
CHIQ3 12:141282Field goal10–21
DETQ3 7:29745Punt10–21
CHIQ3 3:1332Punt10–21
CHIQ3 1:44549Touchdown17–21
DETQ4 14:53613Punt17–21
CHIQ4 12:0958Punt17–21
DETQ4 10:12936Punt17–21
CHIQ4 6:3430Punt17–21
DETQ4 6:09944End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller25/3720421
Cade McNown0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Glyn Milburn13030.00
Curtis Enis6101.70
Cade McNown199.00
Edgar Bennett122.00
James Allen210.50
Jim Miller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson48610
Bobby Engram46410
Marty Booker34331
Curtis Conway59310
Glyn Milburn12100
Edgar Bennett2290
Ryan Wetnight1390
Curtis Enis4470
Alonzo Mayes1131

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte29/4230920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Greg Hill19683.61
Gus Frerotte451.30
Sedrick Irvin231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell712911
Johnnie Morton58591
David Sloan34340
Greg Hill33320
Herman Moore23260
Sedrick Irvin33200
Walter Rasby22160
Brian Stablein1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36