Closing spread
DET -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.057
- 38.6%Success rate38.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.024
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.222
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- 37.0%Third-down rate35.5%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.03Points / drive1.19
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 25/37 | 204 | 2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Curtis Conway | 5 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 29/42 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 7 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36