2022 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

31·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.073EPA / play-0.039
  • 45.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.27CPOE-4.05
  • 41.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.78
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00870Field goal0–3
DETQ1 10:391368Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 3:21622Punt3–3
DETQ2 14:441584Touchdown10–3
CHIQ2 7:181585Touchdown10–10
DETQ2 0:1210End of half10–10
DETQ3 15:0037Punt10–10
CHIQ3 12:551076Touchdown10–17
DETQ3 7:36517Punt10–17
CHIQ3 4:09371Touchdown10–24
DETQ3 2:4359Punt10–24
CHIQ4 15:0035Punt10–24
DETQ4 13:35530Touchdown17–24
CHIQ4 11:3732Opp touchdown24–24
CHIQ4 10:29375Touchdown24–30
DETQ4 9:1138Punt24–30
CHIQ4 7:3835Punt24–30
DETQ4 5:23891Touchdown31–30
CHIQ4 2:217-3Turnover on downs31–30
DETQ4 1:04310End of half31–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/2623610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams16593.71
Jared Goff4143.50
Justin Jackson4143.50
D'Andre Swift661.01
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown10111190
Kalif Raymond33470
Tom Kennedy12440
Justin Jackson23140
D'Andre Swift1360
James Mitchell1140
Brock Wright1121
Shane Zylstra0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields12/2016721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields1314711.32
Khalil Herbert10575.70
David Montgomery9374.10
Equanimeous St. Brown294.50
Dante Pettis188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet47742
Darnell Mooney44570
Byron Pringle12120
Dante Pettis1190
Chase Claypool1280
David Montgomery1170
Trevon Wesco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.64