Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play-0.039
- 45.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.27CPOE-4.05
- 41.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.36Points / drive1.78
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/26 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 11 | 119 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Shane Zylstra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12/20 | 167 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 13 | 147 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Khalil Herbert | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 7 | 74 | 2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.64