Closing spread
DET -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.052
- 45.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.045
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.34CPOE+0.01
- 42.4%Third-down rate41.7%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.29Points / drive1.72
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/35 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 19/33 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.67