Closing spread
DET -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.156
- 40.1%Success rate49.6%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.021
- 5.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- -0.22CPOE+5.81
- 33.1%Third-down rate48.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 1.65Points / drive3.02
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/39 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 16 | 97 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 73 | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/34 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 87 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.93