2024 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

20·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.156
  • 40.1%Success rate49.6%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.021
  • 5.9%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -0.22CPOE+5.81
  • 33.1%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 1.65Points / drive3.02
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:001458Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 7:0635Punt0–3
DETQ1 5:281090Touchdown0–10
CHIQ2 14:5546Punt0–10
DETQ2 12:411166Field goal0–13
CHIQ2 7:1534Punt0–13
DETQ2 6:13839Field goal0–16
CHIQ2 3:11517Turnover on downs0–16
DETQ2 1:54526Turnover0–16
CHIQ2 0:55621Turnover on downs0–16
CHIQ3 15:00974Touchdown7–16
DETQ3 9:471163Touchdown7–23
CHIQ3 2:43965Touchdown13–23
DETQ4 13:40416Punt13–23
CHIQ4 12:103-8Punt13–23
DETQ4 10:23439Missed field goal13–23
CHIQ4 8:42865Touchdown20–23
DETQ4 5:3638Punt20–23
CHIQ4 3:311552End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams20/3925630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift11393.50
Caleb Williams4399.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore816971
Keenan Allen58732
D'Andre Swift23350
Cole Kmet33260
Rome Odunze26250

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3422120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21884.20
Jahmyr Gibbs9879.70
Jameson Williams2189.00
Jared Goff111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown57730
Tim Patrick23480
David Montgomery33360
Jameson Williams57280
Jahmyr Gibbs24170
Brock Wright11130
Sam LaPorta3662

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.93