2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

10·41

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.073
  • 41.1%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.070
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.05CPOE-1.27
  • 41.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.36
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:00970Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 10:541051Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 6:45670Field goal10–7
DETQ1 2:26675Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 14:24521Punt10–14
DETQ2 12:1837Punt10–14
CHIQ2 11:143-4Punt10–14
DETQ2 9:20963Touchdown10–21
CHIQ2 4:16323Turnover10–21
DETQ2 2:50746Field goal10–24
CHIQ2 0:1710Turnover10–24
DETQ3 15:00675Touchdown10–31
CHIQ3 11:3834Punt10–31
DETQ3 10:32792Touchdown10–38
CHIQ3 6:3635Punt10–38
DETQ3 5:0138Punt10–38
CHIQ3 3:2835Punt10–38
DETQ3 1:27930Punt10–38
CHIQ4 11:4734Punt10–38
DETQ4 10:1348Turnover on downs10–38
CHIQ4 8:00926Turnover on downs10–38
DETQ4 5:11452Field goal10–41
CHIQ4 2:4046Punt10–41
DETQ4 1:3600End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields7/217511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields1013213.20
Khalil Herbert5316.20
David Montgomery6244.00
Velus Jones Jr.11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet23271
Equanimeous St. Brown23200
N'Keal Harry11160
David Montgomery23120
Ryan Griffin0100
Byron Pringle0400
Dante Pettis0100
Chase Claypool0100
Velus Jones Jr.0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2925530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams221446.51
D'Andre Swift11787.11
Jameson Williams14040.00
Kalif Raymond144.00
Jared Goff122.00
Nate Sudfeld3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown45620
DJ Chark24560
Kalif Raymond33400
D'Andre Swift44391
James Mitchell11150
Jamaal Williams11130
Brock Wright34132
Shane Zylstra1270
Josh Reynolds1150
Jameson Williams0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.05