Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.073
- 41.1%Success rate45.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.070
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.05CPOE-1.27
- 41.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.78Points / drive2.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7/21 | 75 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 10 | 132 | 13.2 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/29 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 22 | 144 | 6.5 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.05