Closing spread
DET -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.072
- 49.6%Success rate40.1%
- +0.267EPA / dropback-0.036
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.142
- 11.5%Explosive rate5.9%
- +5.81CPOE-0.22
- 48.1%Third-down rate33.1%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 3.02Points / drive1.65
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 336 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23 | 109 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 7 | 143 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Sione Vaki | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 26/40 | 334 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 13 | 141 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.60