2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

34·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.072
  • 49.6%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback-0.036
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.142
  • 11.5%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +5.81CPOE-0.22
  • 48.1%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 3.02Points / drive1.65
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:49870Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:3532Turnover3–0
DETQ1 8:27736Touchdown10–0
CHIQ1 5:34441Turnover10–0
DETQ1 3:28644Field goal13–0
CHIQ1 0:02531Punt13–0
DETQ2 13:32293Touchdown20–0
CHIQ2 12:491480Touchdown20–7
DETQ2 6:311165Touchdown27–7
CHIQ2 0:58370Touchdown27–14
DETQ2 0:39524Missed field goal27–14
DETQ3 15:00564Touchdown34–14
CHIQ3 12:181063Field goal34–17
DETQ3 6:031147Turnover on downs34–17
CHIQ4 14:511060Punt34–17
DETQ4 8:13620Punt34–17
CHIQ4 5:361134Turnover on downs34–17
DETQ4 2:30313End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3233630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs231094.71
Craig Reynolds4184.50
Jermar Jefferson3134.30
Jameson Williams177.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams571431
Amon-Ra St. Brown68701
Jahmyr Gibbs45450
Sam LaPorta47431
Sione Vaki22200
Jermar Jefferson11100
Craig Reynolds1150
Tim Patrick0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams26/4033420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Caleb Williams6345.70
D'Andre Swift9202.20
Roschon Johnson133.00
DJ Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen9131411
Rome Odunze47770
DJ Moore710680
D'Andre Swift33330
Cole Kmet2291
Gerald Everett1160
Collin Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.60