Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.076
- 45.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.007
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.64CPOE-3.48
- 39.2%Third-down rate42.0%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.54Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/42 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 15 | 139 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/33 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 10 | 13 | 91 | 1 |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.43