2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

19·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.076
  • 45.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.007
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.64CPOE-3.48
  • 39.2%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:001055Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:35830Punt3–0
DETQ1 3:391676Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 11:2830Punt6–0
DETQ2 9:46971Touchdown13–0
CHIQ2 4:40939Turnover on downs13–0
DETQ2 0:30535Missed field goal13–0
CHIQ3 15:0036Punt13–0
DETQ3 13:38410Punt13–0
CHIQ3 10:29832Turnover13–0
DETQ3 7:451074Field goal16–0
CHIQ3 2:11760Touchdown16–8
DETQ4 14:16423Punt16–8
CHIQ4 11:211288Touchdown16–16
DETQ4 5:251050Turnover16–16
CHIQ4 2:11315Punt16–16
DETQ4 1:41539Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff27/4233111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs19804.20
David Montgomery8425.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown11151390
Jameson Williams68740
Kalif Raymond33520
Jahmyr Gibbs35331
Isaac TeSlaa11180
David Montgomery11130
Anthony Firkser2320

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams20/3321221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift10404.00
Kyle Monangai6142.30
Luther Burden III11010.00
Caleb Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colston Loveland1013911
Jahdae Walker23361
Luther Burden III34350
Cole Kmet23160
Kyle Monangai11150
DJ Moore13110
D'Andre Swift1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.43