Closing spread
DET -8
Total
48
Model margin
+2.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.058
- 41.6%Success rate45.9%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +0.01CPOE+1.34
- 41.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.72Points / drive2.29
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/23 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/35 | 236 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.98