2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

26·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -8

Total

48

Model margin

+2.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.058
  • 41.6%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.34
  • 41.7%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.29
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 9:23730Turnover7–0
CHIQ1 6:14919Punt7–0
DETQ1 1:09611Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 14:3022Turnover7–0
DETQ2 13:18834Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 9:231462Field goal10–7
DETQ2 1:471075Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 0:1100End of half10–14
DETQ3 15:00423Punt10–14
CHIQ3 13:021055Field goal13–14
DETQ3 6:4100Touchdown13–14
CHIQ3 6:32451Touchdown20–14
DETQ3 4:41521Turnover20–14
CHIQ3 2:25620Field goal23–14
DETQ4 14:123-3Punt23–14
CHIQ4 13:001460Field goal26–14
DETQ4 4:15675Touchdown26–21
CHIQ4 2:5931Punt26–21
DETQ4 2:331173Touchdown26–29
CHIQ4 0:291-10Safety26–31
DETQ4 0:2200End of half26–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields16/2316910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields181045.80
Khalil Herbert16352.20
Roschon Johnson6305.00
D'Onta Foreman6142.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore79961
Darnell Mooney11240
Cole Kmet34200
Equanimeous St. Brown22190
Khalil Herbert2360
Tyler Scott1240
Marcedes Lewis0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3523623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery12766.31
Jahmyr Gibbs8364.51
Jared Goff231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown811771
Jahmyr Gibbs66590
Jameson Williams23441
David Montgomery22220
Sam LaPorta35180
Josh Reynolds12110
Kalif Raymond1250
Donovan Peoples-Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.98