Closing spread
DET -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.071
- 45.7%Success rate45.0%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.167
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.48CPOE+1.64
- 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.32Points / drive2.54
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/30 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
| Tyson Bagent | 2/3 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 7 | 11 | 128 | 2 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/28 | 334 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 94 | 7.8 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 115 | 3 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 4 | 108 | 1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.82