2025 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

21·52

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.071
  • 45.7%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.167
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.48CPOE+1.64
  • 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.54
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET
2021 · W12CHI @ DET16–14CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00560Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 12:13879Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 8:30420Punt7–7
CHIQ1 6:5238Punt7–7
DETQ1 5:03550Touchdown7–14
CHIQ1 2:39632Turnover7–14
DETQ1 0:3131Punt7–14
CHIQ2 14:4049Turnover on downs7–14
DETQ2 13:1430Missed field goal7–14
CHIQ2 11:57617Turnover7–14
DETQ2 9:45867Touchdown7–21
CHIQ2 4:48757Touchdown14–21
DETQ2 1:55876Touchdown14–28
CHIQ2 0:0200End of half14–28
CHIQ3 15:0036Punt14–28
DETQ3 13:42460Field goal14–31
CHIQ3 10:39515Turnover on downs14–31
DETQ3 7:41346Touchdown14–38
CHIQ3 6:2266Punt14–38
DETQ3 4:19784Touchdown14–45
CHIQ4 14:56947Touchdown21–45
DETQ4 11:45643Touchdown21–52
CHIQ4 7:5835Punt21–52
DETQ4 6:0234Punt21–52
CHIQ4 4:01858End of half21–52

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams19/3020721
Tyson Bagent2/32700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift12635.31
Kyle Monangai7284.00
Caleb Williams5275.40
Olamide Zaccheaus199.00
Tyson Bagent273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze7111282
DJ Moore56460
Cole Kmet22290
Olamide Zaccheaus25120
Kyle Monangai1380
D'Andre Swift3360
Luther Burden III1250
Colston Loveland0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/2833450

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs12947.81
David Montgomery11575.21
Kalif Raymond199.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown273.50
Jared Goff166.00
Craig Reynolds341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9111153
Jameson Williams241081
Isaac TeSlaa11290
Brock Wright33281
Sam LaPorta34260
Kalif Raymond11140
Jahmyr Gibbs33100
David Montgomery1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.82