Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
36
Model margin
+2.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.063
- 39.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.4%
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.24Points / drive1.27
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 15/28 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 4 | 6 | 123 | 1 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 19/35 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 5/11 | 36 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 11 | 89 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 7 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Will Blackwell | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27