1999 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

27·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -11

Total

36

Model margin

+2.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.4%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.1%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 39.2%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 43.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.27
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:00384Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 13:33515Turnover7–0
CINQ1 10:35665Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 8:0433Punt14–0
CINQ1 6:1934Punt14–0
PITQ1 4:45837Field goal14–3
CINQ1 1:21621Turnover14–3
PITQ2 14:1721Opp touchdown21–3
CINQ2 13:3000Opp touchdown21–3
PITQ2 13:30311Turnover21–3
CINQ2 12:08525Field goal24–3
PITQ2 10:331145Field goal24–6
CINQ2 5:4336Punt24–6
PITQ2 3:15671Touchdown24–13
CINQ2 1:53424Punt24–13
PITQ2 0:39312Punt24–13
CINQ2 0:0200End of half24–13
PITQ3 15:00365Touchdown24–20
CINQ3 13:32861Field goal27–20
PITQ3 9:44739Punt27–20
CINQ3 6:10750Punt27–20
PITQ3 3:22621Turnover on downs27–20
CINQ3 0:11526Turnover on downs27–20
PITQ4 12:37621Turnover on downs27–20
CINQ4 9:52948Missed field goal27–20
PITQ4 5:513-16Punt27–20
CINQ4 4:4234Punt27–20
PITQ4 4:121266Turnover on downs27–20
CINQ4 0:4900End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake15/2824111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon231205.20
Michael Basnight13535.00
Jeff Blake11252.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott461231
Carl Pickens28410
Nicolas Luchey33270
Michael Basnight22220
Corey Dillon33200
Willie Jackson1280
Marco Battaglia0300
Tony McGee0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Tomczak19/3526420
Kordell Stewart5/113602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis22813.70
Richard Huntley5122.40
Mike Tomczak2105.00
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala144.00
Amos Zereoue144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward711891
Troy Edwards712860
Mark Bruener23510
Bobby Shaw37361
Will Blackwell25190
Mitch Lyons1170
Jerome Bettis1160
Richard Huntley1360
Courtney Hawkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.27