Closing spread
GB -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.036
- 40.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.14
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/35 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 19/35 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 6 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.48