Closing spread
GB -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.036
- 40.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.14
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:09 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:32 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:41 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:27 | 7 | 77 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 14:51 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| SF | Q2 11:50 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 8:20 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| SF | Q2 4:49 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 2:51 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 10–3 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 11:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| GB | Q3 10:13 | 12 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| SF | Q3 3:42 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–3 |
| GB | Q3 2:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–3 |
| SF | Q3 0:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–3 |
| GB | Q4 14:46 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| SF | Q4 11:36 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| GB | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| SF | Q4 8:04 | 13 | 89 | Turnover on downs | 20–3 |
| GB | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| SF | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 20–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/35 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 19/35 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 6 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.48