Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.085
- 48.9%Success rate45.5%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +4.71CPOE+1.73
- 43.8%Third-down rate40.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.45Points / drive2.30
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/33 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 12 | 18 | 132 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 25/40 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Sermon | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.77