2021 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·28

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.085
  • 48.9%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +4.71CPOE+1.73
  • 43.8%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.30
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
GBQ1 15:00854Field goal3–0
SFQ1 10:06516Punt3–0
GBQ1 7:25780Touchdown10–0
SFQ1 3:1939Punt10–0
GBQ1 1:5160Punt10–0
SFQ2 13:5110Turnover10–0
GBQ2 13:36629Turnover on downs10–0
SFQ2 10:201047Punt10–0
GBQ2 4:481060Touchdown17–0
SFQ2 1:021027Touchdown17–7
SFQ3 15:001383Touchdown17–14
GBQ3 7:4138Punt17–14
SFQ3 5:5837Punt17–14
GBQ3 4:241162Touchdown24–14
SFQ4 13:271144Touchdown24–21
GBQ4 7:4830Punt24–21
SFQ4 7:186-10Turnover24–21
GBQ4 4:58418Field goal27–21
SFQ4 2:39875Touchdown27–28
GBQ4 0:37342Field goal30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3326120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones19824.31
AJ Dillon6183.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams12181321
Marquez Valdes-Scantling34591
Allen Lazard11420
Aaron Jones22140
AJ Dillon2280
Robert Tonyan1160
Josiah Deguara1140
Randall Cobb0100
Aaron Rodgers11-40

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo25/4025721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Sermon10313.11
George Kittle199.00
Brandon Aiyuk188.00
Jimmy Garoppolo144.00
Trey Lance111.01
Deebo Samuel Sr.200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle79920
Deebo Samuel Sr.510520
Brandon Aiyuk46371
Mohamed Sanu36360
Trey Sermon2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.77