2020 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.010
  • 50.7%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.089
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +6.90CPOE-1.74
  • 50.7%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.03
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
GBQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 11:4239Punt7–0
GBQ1 10:08627Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:581071Field goal7–3
GBQ1 0:4736Punt7–3
SFQ2 14:48735Turnover7–3
GBQ2 11:421030Touchdown14–3
SFQ2 7:0134Punt14–3
GBQ2 5:26982Touchdown21–3
SFQ2 1:5335Punt21–3
GBQ2 0:441-11End of half21–3
SFQ3 15:0055Punt21–3
GBQ3 13:17980Touchdown28–3
SFQ3 7:1742Turnover28–3
GBQ3 5:27646Field goal31–3
SFQ3 2:01766Turnover on downs31–3
GBQ4 14:291265Field goal34–3
SFQ4 6:15480Touchdown34–10
GBQ4 5:0036Punt34–10
SFQ4 2:391160Touchdown34–17
GBQ4 0:0400End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3130540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones15583.90
Tyler Ervin8243.00
Malik Taylor199.00
Dexter Williams284.00
Aaron Rodgers177.00
Tim Boyle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10121731
Marquez Valdes-Scantling24532
Tyler Ervin45480
Aaron Jones55210
Robert Tonyan1150
Darrius Shepherd1130
Marcedes Lewis1111
Jace Sternberger1110

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens22/3529111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon12524.31
JaMycal Hasty430.80
Nick Mullens100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James9131841
Ross Dwelley33520
Jerick McKinnon34160
River Cracraft25130
JaMycal Hasty22100
Trent Taylor1490
Jordan Reed1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.57