Closing spread
GB -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.010
- 50.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +6.90CPOE-1.74
- 50.7%Third-down rate39.6%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.98Points / drive2.03
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/31 | 305 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dexter Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 12 | 173 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 53 | 2 |
| Tyler Ervin | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jace Sternberger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 22/35 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 9 | 13 | 184 | 1 |
| Ross Dwelley | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.57