Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.136
- 45.5%Success rate48.9%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.003
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.73CPOE+4.71
- 40.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.30Points / drive2.45
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 11/19 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/29 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.28