2019 · CON

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

20·37

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -8

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.077
  • 43.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.5%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +0.96CPOE+2.34
  • 37.9%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.28
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:05525Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:33689Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:5554Punt0–7
SFQ1 2:1650Field goal0–10
GBQ2 14:553-6Punt0–10
SFQ2 12:32637Touchdown0–17
GBQ2 9:12650Turnover0–17
SFQ2 5:39860Field goal0–20
GBQ2 1:57319Turnover0–20
SFQ2 1:01330Touchdown0–27
GBQ2 0:4531Punt0–27
GBQ3 15:001180Touchdown7–27
SFQ3 8:44779Touchdown7–34
GBQ3 4:491280Touchdown13–34
SFQ4 14:3539Punt13–34
GBQ4 11:25792Touchdown20–34
SFQ4 8:131044Field goal20–37
GBQ4 3:31513Turnover20–37
SFQ4 1:4800End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/3932622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12564.71
Jamaal Williams362.00
Aaron Rodgers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9111380
Jimmy Graham45590
Allen Lazard34360
Aaron Jones55271
Jake Kumerow11230
Marcedes Lewis22140
Jace Sternberger22131
Geronimo Allison2380
Tyler Ervin1170
Jamaal Williams2310

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo6/87700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert292207.64
Deebo Samuel Sr.24321.50
Tevin Coleman6213.50
Matt Breida122.00
Jimmy Garoppolo4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.23460
George Kittle11190
Raheem Mostert2260
Kendrick Bourne1160
Emmanuel Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.44