Closing spread
SF -3
Total
48
Model margin
+0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.077
- 43.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.5%Explosive rate12.1%
- +0.96CPOE+2.34
- 37.9%Third-down rate45.8%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.12Points / drive2.28
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/33 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 3/4 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 12 | 43 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14/20 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 129 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.80