2019 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

8·37

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

48

Model margin

+0.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.077
  • 43.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.5%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +0.96CPOE+2.34
  • 37.9%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.28
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
GBQ1 15:0052Turnover0–6
SFQ1 13:0712Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 13:0236Punt0–7
SFQ1 11:29525Punt0–7
GBQ1 8:3431Punt0–7
SFQ1 6:56735Field goal0–10
GBQ1 3:1347Punt0–10
SFQ1 1:173-3Punt0–10
GBQ2 14:53852Turnover on downs0–10
SFQ2 11:064-5Punt0–10
GBQ2 9:097-5Punt0–10
SFQ2 6:11659Field goal0–13
GBQ2 2:5534Punt0–13
SFQ2 1:56361Touchdown0–20
GBQ2 0:583-7Punt0–20
SFQ2 0:24222Field goal0–23
SFQ3 15:004-1Punt0–23
GBQ3 12:261552Touchdown8–23
SFQ3 3:52275Touchdown8–30
GBQ3 2:551537Turnover on downs8–30
SFQ4 11:291069Touchdown8–37
GBQ4 4:581249End of half8–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3310410
Tim Boyle3/41500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams11454.10
Aaron Jones13382.90
Allen Lazard12121.00
Aaron Rodgers3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams712431
Jamaal Williams78350
Geronimo Allison3490
Robert Tonyan2280
Jimmy Graham1270
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1370
Allen Lazard1270
Danny Vitale1130
Jake Kumerow0100
Aaron Jones0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo14/2025320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert6457.51
Tevin Coleman11393.51
Jeff Wilson22713.50
Jimmy Garoppolo210.50
Richie James100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle661291
Deebo Samuel Sr.22501
Kendrick Bourne22270
Raheem Mostert13220
Emmanuel Sanders11150
Tevin Coleman24100
Jeff Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.80