2024 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brandon Allen

10·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+9.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.081
  • 46.0%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.030
  • 10.5%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +1.77CPOE+1.37
  • 43.1%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.38
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
GBQ1 15:001377Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 7:3538Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:55949Field goal0–10
SFQ1 0:11413Punt0–10
GBQ2 13:291371Touchdown0–17
SFQ2 6:331175Touchdown7–17
GBQ2 1:02521Punt7–17
SFQ2 0:0600End of half7–17
SFQ3 15:00835Turnover on downs7–17
GBQ3 10:4730Punt7–17
SFQ3 9:19645Turnover7–17
GBQ3 5:4949Touchdown7–24
SFQ3 4:28544Field goal10–24
GBQ3 2:12415Punt10–24
SFQ3 0:413-1Punt10–24
GBQ4 14:4532Punt10–24
SFQ4 12:3710Turnover10–24
GBQ4 12:30316Touchdown10–31
SFQ4 10:59123Turnover10–31
GBQ4 10:511056Touchdown10–38
SFQ4 4:1448Turnover on downs10–38
GBQ4 3:1949Turnover on downs10–38
SFQ4 1:132-8End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen17/2919911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey11312.80
Jordan Mason382.70
Brandon Allen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle66821
Jauan Jennings57400
Christian McCaffrey34370
Deebo Samuel Sr.14210
Jordan Mason1250
Chris Conley0100
Eric Saubert0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love13/2316320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs261064.13
Emanuel Wilson9414.60
Chris Brooks4112.80
Bo Melton155.00
Christian Watson144.00
Jordan Love122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs36540
Tucker Kraft22261
Jayden Reed33260
Dontayvion Wicks12250
Malik Heath22151
Chris Brooks11150
John FitzPatrick1120
Josh Jacobs0100
Bo Melton0100
Christian Watson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.52.5%5.1%6.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.69