Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+9.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.081
- 46.0%Success rate44.8%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.030
- 10.5%Explosive rate11.7%
- +1.77CPOE+1.37
- 43.1%Third-down rate37.6%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.24Points / drive2.38
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/29 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/23 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.69