Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play+0.179
- 45.1%Success rate51.6%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.054EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.2%Explosive rate13.8%
- +1.07CPOE+4.51
- 47.4%Third-down rate48.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.16Points / drive2.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 45 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:22 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:09 | 12 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:30 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 8:42 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 4:09 | 9 | 45 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q3 13:28 | 10 | 45 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| SF | Q3 9:27 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| GB | Q3 7:39 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| SF | Q3 5:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–14 |
| GB | Q3 3:43 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| SF | Q3 2:02 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 21–17 |
| GB | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–17 |
| SF | Q4 13:22 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 21–17 |
| GB | Q4 9:37 | 5 | 62 | Missed field goal | 21–17 |
| SF | Q4 6:18 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| GB | Q4 1:07 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| SF | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/34 | 194 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 23/39 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 12 | 30 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.51