Closing spread
GB -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.054
- 44.8%Success rate45.9%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.046
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.68CPOE-1.39
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.66Points / drive2.05
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 16/23 | 245 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 87 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 126 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/46 | 425 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 16 | 132 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 9 | 104 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| J'Mon Moore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96