2018 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

30·33

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+7.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.054
  • 44.8%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.046
  • 11.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.68CPOE-1.39
  • 37.2%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.05
  • 2.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2015 · W4GB @ SF17–3GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
SFQ1 15:00775Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:59477Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 9:1700Field goal7–7
GBQ1 9:08423Field goal7–10
SFQ1 7:39519Punt7–10
GBQ1 4:52579Touchdown7–17
SFQ1 1:58378Touchdown14–17
GBQ1 0:27755Punt14–17
SFQ2 12:23121Turnover14–17
GBQ2 12:12828Field goal14–20
SFQ2 7:34365Touchdown21–20
GBQ2 6:053-5Punt21–20
SFQ2 5:071232Field goal24–20
GBQ3 15:00642Field goal24–23
SFQ3 11:17849Field goal27–23
GBQ3 6:59621Punt27–23
SFQ3 3:20958Field goal30–23
GBQ4 13:081171Turnover on downs30–23
SFQ4 7:4639Punt30–23
GBQ4 5:333-9Punt30–23
SFQ4 4:063-12Punt30–23
GBQ4 3:00458Touchdown30–30
SFQ4 1:5537Turnover30–30
GBQ4 1:07981Field goal30–33

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard16/2324521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert12877.30
Matt Breida14614.41
C.J. Beathard3217.00
Marquise Goodwin155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin451262
Pierre Garcon46370
George Kittle46300
Kendrick Bourne13220

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/4642520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones8415.10
Aaron Rodgers33411.30
Jamaal Williams6294.80
Ty Montgomery4123.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10161322
Jimmy Graham591040
Marquez Valdes-Scantling361030
Lance Kendricks24370
Equanimeous St. Brown11190
Ty Montgomery23100
Jamaal Williams13100
J'Mon Moore11100
Aaron Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +95.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96