Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:36 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:02 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 4:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:29 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:30 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| KC | Q2 8:38 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:51 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| KC | Q2 1:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:35 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–13 |
| KC | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| KC | Q3 14:02 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q3 10:20 | 3 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 20–13 |
| KC | Q3 8:56 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–13 |
| LV | Q3 8:56 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| KC | Q3 5:15 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 20–26 |
| LV | Q3 4:12 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| KC | Q3 4:06 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| LV | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–27 |
| KC | Q3 0:43 | 2 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 20–34 |
| LV | Q3 0:03 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–34 |
| KC | Q3 0:03 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 27–34 |
| LV | Q4 13:38 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 27–34 |
| KC | Q4 9:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–34 |
| LV | Q4 7:33 | 2 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 34–34 |
| KC | Q4 6:24 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 34–34 |
| LV | Q4 6:24 | 6 | 40 | Missed field goal | 34–34 |
| KC | Q4 2:56 | 9 | 30 | Field goal | 37–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/27 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cloud | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 4 | 90 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.