Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/27 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cloud | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 4 | 90 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.