2024 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

17·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -13.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.071
  • 41.0%Success rate47.7%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.058
  • 7.2%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -1.46CPOE+2.51
  • 34.2%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.36
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–KC
KCQ1 15:001346Field goal0–3
LVQ1 10:06621Punt0–3
KCQ1 6:291060Punt0–3
LVQ1 2:23988Field goal3–3
KCQ2 11:033-6Punt3–3
LVQ2 8:55722Missed field goal3–3
KCQ2 5:55753Touchdown3–10
LVQ2 2:14527Punt3–10
KCQ2 1:00338Missed field goal3–10
LVQ3 15:00845Turnover on downs3–10
KCQ3 11:45647Field goal3–13
LVQ3 8:40828Missed field goal3–13
KCQ3 4:28638Field goal3–16
LVQ3 3:11336Touchdown10–16
KCQ3 1:403-1Punt10–16
LVQ3 0:05269Touchdown17–16
KCQ4 14:521240Field goal17–19
LVQ4 9:53515Punt17–19
KCQ4 6:4637Punt17–19
LVQ4 5:15728Missed field goal17–19
KCQ4 2:1738Punt17–19
LVQ4 1:56755Turnover17–19
KCQ4 0:1100End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell23/3534020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sincere McCormick12645.30
Ameer Abdullah10393.90
Tre Tucker11111.00
Brock Bowers122.00
Aidan O'Connell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers10141401
Jakobi Meyers611970
Tre Tucker11581
DJ Turner11250
Ameer Abdullah22140
Michael Mayer1250
Sincere McCormick2210
Terrace Marshall Jr.0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/4630610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco7446.30
Kareem Hunt7152.10
Patrick Mahomes242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins49900
Travis Kelce713680
Noah Gray46580
Xavier Worthy57540
Samaje Perine11150
JuJu Smith-Schuster11100
Justin Watson1361
Isiah Pacheco1150
Kareem Hunt2400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91