Closing spread
KC -13.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.071
- 41.0%Success rate47.7%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.058
- 7.2%Explosive rate5.8%
- -1.46CPOE+2.51
- 34.2%Third-down rate48.6%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.51Points / drive2.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 23/35 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sincere McCormick | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 10 | 14 | 140 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 1 | 58 | 1 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Sincere McCormick | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/46 | 306 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91