Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapRaiders
- +0.118EPA / play-0.029
- 40.9%Success rate43.1%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.027
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.7%
- -11.92CPOE+0.71
- 56.3%Third-down rate41.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.57Points / drive2.44
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.61
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.39