2026 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

30·27

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.104EPA / play+0.019
  • 46.6%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.168
  • +0.075EPA / rush-0.252
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +0.11CPOE-1.41
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.49
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
KCQ1 15:00827Turnover on downs0–0
LVQ1 10:26450Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:101164Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 2:23416Punt7–7
KCQ2 15:00846Punt7–7
LVQ2 11:191561Field goal7–10
KCQ2 3:19970Field goal10–10
LVQ2 1:22736Field goal10–13
LVQ3 15:00744Turnover on downs10–13
KCQ3 11:32615Punt10–13
LVQ3 8:38831Punt10–13
KCQ3 4:3333Punt10–13
LVQ3 3:35616Punt10–13
KCQ3 0:30384Touchdown17–13
LVQ4 14:50619Field goal17–16
KCQ4 11:1235Punt17–16
LVQ4 9:36765Field goal17–19
KCQ4 4:53462Touchdown23–19
LVQ4 3:2100Touchdown29–19
KCQ4 3:10122Touchdown30–19
LVQ4 3:02745Touchdown30–27
KCQ4 1:4632Punt30–27
LVQ4 1:16954Turnover30–27
KCQ4 0:0100End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes15/3022520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III221778.02
Patrick Mahomes200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyquan Thornton581112
Xavier Worthy47700
Noah Gray23170
Travis Kelce24150
Emmett Johnson11100
Kenneth Walker III1120
Jalen Royals0200
Cyrus Allen0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/5236521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty15583.90
Mike Washington Jr.9182.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers611861
Michael Mayer810820
Ashton Jeanty68680
Tre Tucker48440
Cody White24360
Ian Thomas22321
Dareke Young1290
Mike Washington Jr.12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.55