Closing spread
KC -11
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.021
- 41.5%Success rate43.8%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.111
- 5.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.79CPOE+1.52
- 35.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.66Points / drive1.89
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 9/21 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 22 | 145 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Cole Fotheringham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/44 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 6 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Justyn Ross | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.27