2024 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

27·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

42

Model margin

+2.4est.

LV perspective

Push chance

1.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.131
  • 47.7%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.283
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +2.51CPOE-1.46
  • 48.6%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.51
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
KCQ1 15:00970Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 10:021275Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 2:39514Punt7–7
LVQ1 0:591050Field goal7–10
KCQ2 10:131475Touchdown14–10
LVQ2 1:5732Punt14–10
KCQ2 0:58749Field goal17–10
LVQ2 0:0400End of half17–10
LVQ3 15:0031Punt17–10
KCQ3 13:2531Punt17–10
LVQ3 12:31919Field goal17–13
KCQ3 6:4030Turnover17–13
LVQ3 5:394-5Turnover on downs17–13
KCQ3 3:271990Field goal20–13
LVQ4 8:4427Turnover20–13
KCQ4 8:00838Touchdown27–13
LVQ4 4:591280Touchdown27–20
KCQ4 2:0300End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/3826221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt21592.81
Patrick Mahomes6172.80
Carson Steele263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce1012901
Xavier Worthy48371
Justin Watson33330
Samaje Perine22300
DeAndre Hopkins23290
Noah Gray33230
Mecole Hardman1180
Carson Steele1180
Kareem Hunt1140
Joseph Fortson0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew24/3020920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison14151.10
Tre Tucker177.00
Gardner Minshew263.00
DJ Turner144.00
Ameer Abdullah122.00
Zamir White2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers55580
Jakobi Meyers67521
Alexander Mattison55290
DJ Turner44281
Tre Tucker23260
Ameer Abdullah1290
John Shenker1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -94.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

0.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41