Closing spread
KC -9
Total
42
Model margin
+2.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.131
- 47.7%Success rate41.0%
- +0.142EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.283
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.51CPOE-1.46
- 48.6%Third-down rate34.2%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.36Points / drive1.51
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/38 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 12 | 90 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/30 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 14 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| John Shenker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
0.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41